Flux by Rob Manson

Don't be fooled - LLMs really do reason

I disagree with the title of Thore Graepel’s article, but the more interesting debate is about his unstated assumption that “the model is the whole…

Oct 5 • Rob Manson

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September 2026

Your Computer Now Ages Like Benjamin Button

While everyone focuses on the frontier, a new “inverse Moore's Law” means the hardware you already own will keep getting smarter and more capable

Sep 27 • Rob Manson

AI at the end of September, 2026

Economists at the US Census Bureau have put hard numbers on what has already happened to new graduates - but underneath that, the landscape is starting…

Sep 21 • Rob Manson

Three Reasons AI Alignment May Not Scale

Frontier AI-Alignment is relying on some specific assumptions that are very rarely discussed.

Sep 20 • Rob Manson

China’s faster than USA at AI (regulation that is)

It’s been a strange week, in which the people building the most powerful AI asked to be slowed down, the government said no, and became apparent the…

Sep 14 • Rob Manson

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‘Substantial’ is not moderate, or reassuring

Taking the new Anthropic AI-jobs paper completely seriously - and finding it’s not as reassuring as many people seem to claim.

Sep 11 • Rob Manson

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AI at the beginning of September, 2026

Where are we at right now?

Sep 7 • Rob Manson

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August 2026

AI at mid-August, 2026

Where are we at right now?

Aug 10 • Rob Manson

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June 2026

A SAFER Solution For The AI Abundance vs. Jobpocalypse Argument

We're all betting on a future of AI-driven abundance, but without any insurance for the alternative. Here's a policy proposal to fix this, and that both…

Jun 21 • Rob Manson

AI at mid-June, 2026

Where are we at right now?

Jun 16 • Rob Manson

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A Unified Future For Computer Vision, 3D Generation & World Models

It may look like change is accelerating independently across perception, 3D generation and world models, but one general shape is forming underneath all…

Jun 14 • Rob Manson

Only A Fool Brings AI Optimism To An Economics Fight

The history of automation led to job growth because displaced workers could climb to the next layer. But AI may be targeting that very climbing…

Jun 8 • Rob Manson

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